DoubleLine Minutes

Relative Recumbence Post-Tariff Turbulence (E211)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review (0:05) the abbreviated market week ended April 17. It was a week characterized by lessened price volatility than in the first two weeks of the month and somewhat positive macro prints. As stocks ended lower (0:48), value stocks and the equal-weighted S&P 500 posted gains, diverging from declines for growth stocks and the market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Fixed income (2:00) had a positive week in high yield corporates and emerging markets as well as the investment grade, government and government-guaranteed sectors. Commodities (3:00) caught a bounce.
 
On the macro front (4:39), Eric and Mark walked through import prices, retail sales and industrial data, finding some positive news in the readings, but they cautioned to wait for May data, given the as-yet unclear adjustments under way in response to Trump administration trade policies and reactions from U.S. trading partners. Looking to the week ahead (14:24), among other reports, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for the Leading Economic Index (Monday), S&P Global manufacturing and services (Wednesday) and durable goods orders (Thursday).

More Turbulence Post “Liberation” or “Obliteration” Day (E210)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel April 11, 2025, look into the extraordinary intra-week turbulence (0:48) behind a moderate weekly gain in the S&P 500, an almost no-place-to-hide week for bonds (4:41) and commodities (9:57) showing weakening demand in industrial inputs as WTI crude pierced intraweek below $56/barrel.
 
Overwhelmed by tariff-driven sentiment in the wake of Liberation or Obliteration Day, the markets paid little attention to the week’s backward-looking macro prints (11:24), including constructive March reports for the consumer and producer price indexes. For their review of the week’s Fed Speak (20:23), Jeff and Ryan single out comments on Thursday by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee. In a fireside chat hosted by the Economic Club of New York, Goolsbee said tariffs risk “a stagflationary shock.” This complicates the Fed’s achievement of both its full employment and price stability mandates. “There’s not a generic playbook,” Goolsbee said, “for how a central bank should respond to a stagflationary shock.”
 
The abbreviated April 14-17 market week (22:44) appears to be relatively quiet in terms of scheduled macro news. Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for import prices (Tuesday) and retail sales and industrial production (Wednesday).

The Cruelest Month – for Risk Assets (E209)

Lifting a line from T.S. Eliot, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall surveys a cruel start to April for stocks (0:23) and other risk assets, as shock over Washington-imposed tariffs and fears of a trade war sent the broad equity market into a correction and tech into bear land. The sharp worsening in growth outlooks also erased most of commodities’ gains YTD (2: 07). Prices on WTI and Brent crude plunging below resistance levels the “double whammy” of worsening growth expectations and the stunning decision of OPEC+ to triple oil production relative to increase expectations. The resulting flight to safety (8:29) rewarded investors in high-grade fixed income securities with price gains in U.S. Treasuries, Agency mortgage-backed securities and investment grade corporate bonds. Analyst Mark Kimbrough (13:04) goes through the week’s macro data, including unemployment readings for March that might have buoyed risk markets, but for forward-looking macro fears swamping the backward-looking data prints.
 
Turning to the Federal Reserve (24:51), Eric Dhall notes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is in a tough spot. The markets want four fed funds cuts this year, but Powell faces prospects of both labor deterioration and higher inflation. “I think the Fed is going to sit on its hands in May,” Eric says, “and not do anything knee-jerk unless we get some really massive data prints.” Among the data prints for the week of April 7(33:00), Mark Kimbrough will be on the lookout for the Fed’s report on consumer credit borrowing (Monday), the NFIB small business optimism report (Tuesday), the March consumer price index (Thursday) and March producer price index (Friday).

Equities a Bit of a Bloodbath as Shift on Trade, Tariffs Looms (E208)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the week of March 24-28, with markets reacting to new macro prints and a tariff regime scheduled to be unveiled by the White House on April 2, which President Donald Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day.” Stocks were down, roiled by tariff talk; bonds were no place to hide (2:11); gold continued to shine, flirting with crossing the $3,100 mark (3:30); and commodities were up, lifted by precious metals (3:49). Over in Macro Land (5:56), the week included a PMI mixed bag, manufacturing contractionary/services expansionary; the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March, with outlook deteriorating (6:53); an upside surprise in durable goods orders (7:55); and the week closed with a sticky PCE inflation number that raises questions about interest rate cuts (9:23). Friday also delivered the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which expresses a lot of anxiety about recession risk and inflation levels (14:34). Next week will bring Liberation Day, and a possible reordering of the global trade regime, as well as Friday’s jobs report (16:40).

Uncertainty Makes Sense (E207)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough cover the week ended March 21 in stocks and fixed income, then turn to a macro picture characterized by “kind of bearish” retail sales, fast-growing manufacturing, recessionary warnings from the “broken clock” that has been the Leading Economic Index and an uncertain Fed.
 
With the futures market pricing in three cuts to the fed funds rate in 2025, Eric Dhall cautions against that expectation. Fed officials, he says, seem “befuddled,” with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his March 19 news conference repeatedly invoking the “uncertainty” of current economic landscape. Mr. Dhall notes a decline in the doves in the FOMC’s dot plot even as FOMC members were expecting economic growth to slow. Mark Kimbrough agrees, saying, “Uncertainty makes sense. Uncertainty, is the new buzzword” at the Fed. “They’re trying to look through the impacts of these tariffs, but they don’t know.”
 
Looking ahead to the March 24-28 week, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for S&P Global PMI readings, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller house price indexes, Conference Board consumer confidence and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures.

Hard to Outrun this Bear (E206)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey the markets, including a week (March 10-14) that pushed the stock market (0:40) into one of its fastest corrections on record. Jeff notes (3:10) bonds turned in a flattish to slightly positive week after five days of volatility. Commodities (4:46) were up slightly, with energy diverging into the red.
Surveying macro news (7:40), Ryan covers softer-than-expected consumer price and producer price readings for February while cautioning about the hotter price inputs into the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index favored by the Federal Reserve for inflation tracking. The Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (13:54) for January came in higher than expectations, with 7.74 million job openings and an improvement to 2.1% in the quits rate, a nine-month high. “I take this as a sign that employee confidence has improved a bit, but this is lagged data before we saw the sell-off in equities, which can impact sentiment,” Ryan notes. More germane, he says, is possibly the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, whose preliminary numbers for March show a marked rise in inflation expectations.
Looking ahead (18:59) to the week of March 17-21, while the Fed is expected to stand pat on interest rates on Wednesday, Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for any changes in guidance by the Federal Open Market Committee or from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s news conference. They also will be watching for February retail sales (Monday), import prices (Tuesday), and jobless claims and the Leading Economic Index (Thursday).

Tripping on the Trump Tariff Two-Step (E205)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey a volatile March 3-7 week for equities (0:32) and fixed income (3:06) amid sentiment cross currents over the possibility of trade tariffs while commodities (4:54) posted gains. “Markets have tended to overreact” to the on-again, off-again news about tariffs, Jeff Mayberry says. “All that seems to be weighing on sentiment.” Their review of the week’s macro news (6:23) covers among other items ISM manufacturing and services surveys and a raft of labor market prints, including nonfarm payrolls and unemployment. The household survey, Mark Kimbrough notes, shows “signs of degradation no matter how you slice it.” The week (18:23) of March 10-14 promises key inflation readings, including consumer price index for February (Wednesday) and producer price index for the same month (Thursday).

Weekly, Monthly and Year-to-Date Market Recap (E204)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the market week of Feb. 24-28. They also review performance after the first full month under Trump 2.0 and look at the winners and losers year-to-date among equities, bonds and commodities. Over in Macro Land (7:09), Jeff and Ryan run down a pretty busy week of prints, including softening consumer sentiment, lackluster home sales (8:43) and encouraging PCE inflation data (11:08).
Next week (18:06) will bring payroll numbers, ISM PMI manufacturing and services prints and the Fed’s Beige Book on current economic conditions.

Equities Dip on Short Week Amid Mood Shift and Tightened Egg Rationing (E203)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a Presidents’ Day-shortened market week that included a tick down for equities (00:46), positivity in fixed income (3:32) and rising commodities buoyed by gold (4:52). Over in Macro Land (6:15), they look at the FOMC meeting minutes, which include Fed officials talking about pausing QT and assessing inflation amid policy uncertainty, and the least negative LEI reading since September 2022 (7:58). The composite S&P Global U.S. manufacturing and services PMI releases (9:25) provide food for thought, including chief business economist commentary that “The upbeat mood seen among U.S. businesses at the start of the year has evaporated, replaced with a darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity and rising prices.” Next week (16:22) will bring prints on the housing market, consumer confidence and PCE inflation numbers.

Markets Take the Winding Road to Green (E202)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey stock (0:38), bond (1:54) and commodity (3:53) markets for Feb. 10-14, a week that ended in the green across all three asset classes but was punctuated by a whipsaw in bonds around inflation headlines. Their review of the week’s macro news (4:25) focused on the hotter-than-expected January CPI report, although Ryan Kimmel noted that 14 of the last 15 January CPI readings exceeded consensus forecasts.