DoubleLine Minutes

Sector Dispersion Across Stocks, Winners & Losers in Tech (E249)

For the week ended Feb. 6, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey big industry and investment-style dispersions in the stock market (0:43), including winners and losers within tech; more underlying volatility in bonds than meets the eye (5:26); and commodities roiled by volatility as well as dispersion (8:31). They also take note of a massive ongoing decoupling of gold and the “purported digital gold,” bitcoin, that Eric says is putting both mid-tier bitcoin miners and crypto believers to the test.
On the macro front (12:41), the brief government shutdown delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January payroll and unemployment reports to Feb. 11. Mark finds expansionary signs in the ISM manufacturing and services reports for January, while cautioning not to read too much in one month’s data. Looking ahead (19:01) to the week of Feb. 9-13, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for the January labor reports and consumer price index.

Shifting Stock Momentum, Mixed Bonds, Silver Reversal (E248)

DoubleLine Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review changing industry leadership in the stock market (0:18) for the week ended Jan. 30. The Bloomberg Aggregate squeaked through with gains (3:39) despite higher rates while risky fixed income sectors turned negative. Commodities (6:50) moved higher, driven almost entirely by energy. The forex markets (9:30) witnessed coordinated intervention by the U.S. and Japan to stave off more yen weakness. The week’s macro news (10:58) was dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee, which Wednesday stayed on hold, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference, and President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as head of the Federal Reserve. For next week’s macro calendar (19:09), Ryan and Mark will be especially interested to see forthcoming labor-market benchmark revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, perhaps even an overhaul of the birth-death model.

Lower to Mixed Stocks, Higher Rates, Precious Metals on Fire (E247)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the week ended Jan. 23. They survey a mixed bag for stocks (0:31), with the S&P 500 lower on tech and energy and materials the winners; fixed income (2:06) slightly negative on spillover effects from the selloff in Japanese government bonds and rates up across the Treasury curve; and commodities (3:40) surging higher on energy and precious metals. The macro front (5:43) brought the shutdown-delayed release of benign readings, to be taken “with a big grain of salt,” on the PCE Deflator for October and November; and a weakening in personal income, resulting in a declining personal savings rate. Topping the week ahead (13:36) will be the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference on Jan. 28. Fed funds futures price in a mere 3% probability of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting, rising to only 33% by the end of Powell’s mandate.

News-Driven Stocks, Bonds and Oil (E246)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the market week ended Jan. 16. They observe dispersion among stock-market sectors (0:50), with Real Estate climbing on President Trump pressuring the Government Sponsored Enterprises to buy more mortgage securities in an effort to lower mortgage rates. A mixed bag also prevailed in fixed income (5:00), with Treasury yields in the belly of the curve moving out 5-6 basis points while non-traditional credit sectors still provided positive returns. Commodities (6:52) tacked on gains as crude oil responded to risks of U.S. military strikes and Iranian threats of retaliation. Interestingly, both the dollar (8:46) and gold were up on the week and year-to-date.
In the week’s macro news (10:26), the December consumer price index, notes Mark Kimbrough, offered “some clues that core good inflation is moderating.” For the Jan. 19-23 week, topping the billboard will be the November print of the PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator.

2025 Marks Strong Returns for Financial Assets (E245)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a positive 2025 for stocks, bonds and commodities (1:22), with outperformance in European and emerging market equities. After scanning the first YTD returns for the New Year (5:46), they dive into a data-heavy macro week (9:02) ended Jan. 9. Topping the week’s prints are mixed December labor readings and trade-deficit narrowing that sufficed to raise the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow annualized estimate for 4Q2025 to 5.4% from 2.9%. A review of fed fund futures pricing (17:06) indicates a Fed standing pat until odds for a rate cut reach to a coin flip on April 29, presumably Jerome Powell’s last day to preside over the Federal Open Market Committee. Looking to the week ahead (17:55), topping Jeff and Ryan’s watch list will be the December CPI report (due Tuesday).

2025: Gains for Stocks, Bonds, Stellar Precious Metals (E244)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review markets for the week ended Dec. 19 and close a year that saw gains across equities and fixed income as well as stellar precious metals. Stocks (0:52) registered a meager return for the week but gained nearly 18% YTD. In fixed income (3:11), Treasury yields fell across the curve on the week. The Bloomberg Aggregate has returned more than 7% YTD. Broad commodities (4:32) are up almost 15% for the year and flattish for the week. Silver and gold continued to surge to new all-time highs and platinum to its highest level since 2008.
The week’s macro review (9:06) included somewhat weak labor market readings and a surprisingly weak consumer price index for November. Both reports, Eric and Ryan caution, should be taken with a grain of salt, given effects of the recent government shutdown and seasonality. With the holiday season, the Dec. 22-26 week ahead promises to be a quiet one for data releases. One of the few notable prints will be the updated estimate due Tuesday of 3Q2025 gross domestic product.

Weak Labor, Wait-and-See Inflation (E243)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and cross-asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Dec. 8-12 week, notable for stocks (0:34) erasing the week’s gains after Thursday’s all-time high on the S&P 500. Heavy selling in tech names drove the downside with financials, materials and industrials nonetheless diverging higher. In fixed income (2:03), the Treasury curve steepened as longer yields moved higher, shorter yields lower, in the wake of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s news conference. Broad commodities (3:10) fell, with crude oil posting the biggest losses. Precious metals continued to rally with silver continuing to gain momentum.
For the week’s macro stories (5:45), Mark Kimbrough covers small business optimism, JOLTS, employment-cost and unemployment-claims stories. Then he and Jeff Mayberry turn their attention (11:14) to the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting, its quarter-point fed funds cut and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference amid growing if still-minority policy dissents, signs of weakening labor and a murky outlook on inflation.
Looking to the week ahead (20:49), Jeff and Mark will be on the lookout for payroll and unemployment reports, retail sales,  S&P Global manufacturing and services reports (Tuesday); and jobless claims and November CPI (Thursday).

Tech Stock Two-Step, Slight Risk Recovery and Fed Cut Likely a Lock (E242)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap a mixed performance for markets in November, with the S&P 500 ticking up slightly despite a rough run for tech stocks. But that same sector experienced a bit of a bounce back amid a risk revival in the first week of December (2:20), which also included a strong rate rally on the front end of the interest rate curve heading into a likely Fed cut next week (3:30), a healthy run for commodities (5:22) and more volatility for Bitcoin (6:05). Over in Macro Land (9:26), the week’s prints included a split picture on ISM PMI manufacturing and services data, a soft ADP labor print (10:38) and a consumer sentiment report that underscores an optimism gap between survey responses and hard data (13:39). Next week (16:50), the FOMC will hold its final meeting of 2025, with futures markets forecasting a 95% chance for another rate cut.

AI Skepticism, Stale Data and a Coin Toss (E241)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the week ended Nov. 21, with stocks lower on AI speculation skepticism (0:48), positive high-grade bond returns (2:17) and easing commodities (4:36). Their macro review (9:08) includes the resumption of the government statistical mills, idled by the 43-day shutdown, which churned out a mixed bag of overdue labor market data. While fed funds futures are pricing in likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut Dec. 10, Eric Dhall warns weeks of macro prints lie ahead and regards the odds at this point in time as a coin flip. Among the prints due during the Thanksgiving week ahead (19:45), Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for stale-but-we’ll-have-to-take-it September reports of the PPI, retail sales and durable goods; and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November.

Mixed Market Week, Bitcoin Drop, AWOL Data and the Omega Penny (E240)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap a mixed market week (Nov. 10-14) that marked the end of the federal government shutdown and production of the penny. Equities were up a bit on the week with some pretty interesting dispersion (00:34); fixed income was flat (2:32); energy pumped up commodities (3:49); and Bitcoin fell below the important structural marker of $100k (6:25), with Eric and Ryan noting that the drop is reflective of broader risk sentiment. Over in Macro Land (11:04), they discuss the timeline for government data releases and the likelihood that there will be some holes in October prints. Among non-U.S. government data sources (14:56), they review small-business optimism, weekly payroll numbers and state jobless claims. Next week (18:22) will deliver the FOMC October minutes and some PMI numbers.