April: Rebound in Stocks, Carry in Bonds (E260)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey April market returns, with stocks (0:32) rebounding strongly from wartime losses in the prior month, and IG fixed income (2:55) managing a positive carry in the face of rising yields. Emerging markets debt led risky credit with a 2.7% return. Commodities (3:58) moved higher, led by energy. The week ended May 1 was packed with macro news (6:35), with strong readings in capital goods spending driven by tax-code changes incentivizing business investment and AI investment, and strong but decelerating personal incomes.

The April 29 FOMC meeting (8:05), Jerome Powell’s last as Fed chair while he stays put atop his Fed governor’s perch, was characterized by a single dovish dissent from the committee’s decision to leave rates unchanged and three hawkish dissents over the faint signal of easing bias left in its policy guidance. That behavior was enough, Mark notes, for fed funds futures to reprice from a 25% probability of a single rate cut in 2026 to just about nil “as far as the eye can see.” Looking ahead (18:39) to May 4-8, Jeff and Mark will have their eyes on unemployment and payrolls prints for April as well as JOLTS, ISM services and import-export reports.