Uncertainty Makes Sense (E207)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough cover the week ended March 21 in stocks and fixed income, then turn to a macro picture characterized by “kind of bearish” retail sales, fast-growing manufacturing, recessionary warnings from the “broken clock” that has been the Leading Economic Index and an uncertain Fed.

 

With the futures market pricing in three cuts to the fed funds rate in 2025, Eric Dhall cautions against that expectation. Fed officials, he says, seem “befuddled,” with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his March 19 news conference repeatedly invoking the “uncertainty” of current economic landscape. Mr. Dhall notes a decline in the doves in the FOMC’s dot plot even as FOMC members were expecting economic growth to slow. Mark Kimbrough agrees, saying, “Uncertainty makes sense. Uncertainty, is the new buzzword” at the Fed. “They’re trying to look through the impacts of these tariffs, but they don’t know.”

 

Looking ahead to the March 24-28 week, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for S&P Global PMI readings, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller house price indexes, Conference Board consumer confidence and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures.