DoubleLine Minutes

Morning for Mourning Manufacturers? (E201)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a flattish stock market (0:40), a decline in bond yields (1:56) and stronger commodities (3:41) for the week ended Feb. 7. Then they turn to the week’s macro news (4:40), which was dominated by a raft of labor market reports as well as an expansionary print on the long-languishing ISM manufacturing survey. “We’ll temporarily ring a bell and say a 26-month streak of prints below 50 came to an end in January,” Mark says. “I hope that doesn’t get revised away next month.” In contrast to the week’s jobs-heavy news, the week of Feb. 10-14 (19:20) will turn to inflation, including January CPI and PPI reports.

Fed Flusters Markets, DeepSeek Daunts Tech (E200)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel dissect the week of Jan. 27-31, 2025. The week saw the S&P 500 (0:33) suffer a tech selloff, bond prices (4:30) tick higher and commodities (5:26) lower with precious metals moving higher. The week’s macro news (6:30) was dominated by the Federal Reserve, whose hawkish-seeming policy guidance, followed by softer language during Fed Chair Powell’s news conference, whipsawed markets. Macro prints (9:31) on durable goods, GDP and jobless class were nonevents, but softish readings Friday on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index and the Employment Cost Index, Eric and Ryan noted, give some comfort to the Fed. Looking ahead to the week of Feb. 3-7, Eric and Ryan will have nonfarm payrolls due Friday at the top of their watch list.

Trump 2.0 Headlines a Short Market Week (E199)

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Eric Dhall review the market week of Jan. 21-24, shortened by the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday and overshadowed by the launch of Trump 2.0. Fixed income and the S&P 500 saw mostly green, although energy stocks were impacted after comments by President Trump on oil prices. Commodities were down on the week, led by a declining energy sector. Over in Macro Land (4:36), President Trump’s swearing in and flurry of executive orders kicked off the week, with the U.S. dollar dinged by the absence of Day One tariffs. The otherwise light macro news week also included a negative Leading Economic Index number; initial jobless claims, which could be impacted going forward by the Southern California wildfires; and mixed PMI prints. In addition, Fed watchers remained very skeptical of another rate cut arriving soon. Next week’s prints (9:46) will include home prices, an advanced fourth quarter GDP estimate and the latest PCE number, but the big event will be the first FOMC meeting under the new term of President Trump, who has already questioned the Fed’s stance on interest rates.

Green Market Week and Blossoming Optimism (E198)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough tackle a positive run for the markets the week of Jan. 13-17 heading into a busy weekend of NFL playoffs and Monday’s Inauguration Day. They kick things off with a look at equities (00:56), with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index up on the week, then break down positive runs for fixed income (2:50) and commodities (4:31), supported by a big move by WTI crude. Rosy sentiments bloomed in Macro Land (5:46), including an optimistic small-business survey and a series of inflation prints that could be read as positive. Next week (18:32) will bring an LEI update as well as jobless claims and PMI prints. This episode was recorded Jan. 17, 2025, before market close.

Markets Reprice for “No Landing” (E197)

Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey the week ended Jan. 10, beginning with stock (0:41) and bond (2:06) markets in the red on stronger-than-expected December payrolls, slashing fed funds rate cut expectations. Commodity prices surged, led by crude oil on the prospect of hardened U.S. sanctions against Russian energy exports. On the macroeconomic front (5:15), Jeff and Ryan delve into the payroll and unemployment data and see markets pricing for a “no landing” scenario. Looking to the week ahead (9:17), on their radar will be December readings of the Producer Price Index (Tuesday) and Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) as well as retail sales and jobless claims (Thursday).

Green 2024 Survives December’s Red Market Run (E196)

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Eric Dhall kick off the new year with a rundown of 2024’s and December’s performance while also recapping the holiday week of Dec. 30-Jan. 3, naming the winners and losers (or laggards) in stocks, fixed income (3:30) and commodities (7:04). Over in Macro Land (10:18), Jeff and Eric catch up on recent news, including prints for homes prices and jobless claims as well as cap goods and ISM manufacturing numbers that raise speculation that some businesses might be stocking up in preparation for possible Trump tariffs. Next week (14:49) will bring a heavy dose of macro, including JOLTS, ISM services, payroll, consumer credit and trade sales and inventory numbers.

A Red Week Nearing End of a Green 2024 (E195)

In their last Minutes podcast for 2024, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review year-to-date and Dec. 16-20 returns for stocks (0:36), fixed income (3:16) and commodities (6:17) before taking up the week’s macro news (7:10). For the Topic of the Week (12:22), Jeff and Sam unpack the Dec. 18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference and the immediate impacts on financial markets and longer-term monetary expectations. 

A Friday-the-13th Week for Stocks and Bonds (E194)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey a Friday-the-Thirteenth week for stocks (:033) and bonds (1:56) with commodities managing to end the week ended Dec. 13, 2024, in positive territory despite a rally in the dollar. For the week’s macro news (5:48), Mark Kimbrough notes an improvement in small business sentiment on hopes of lower taxes, easing regulation and inflation relief. He also discusses in-line consumer price index and stronger-than-expected producer price index readings for November. For their Topic of the Week (16:00), Eric Dhall discusses DoubleLine’s inflation model, which forecasts inflation in the 2% zone in 2025, provided energy prices remain tame. Looking ahead (18:47) to the week of Dec. 16-20,  in addition to an expected rate cut and release of economic projections by Federal Open Market Committee (Wednesday), Eric and Mark will be on watch for S&P Global purchasing manager surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors of the U.S. economy (Monday), retail sales (Tuesday), third GDP estimate for 3Q2024 (Thursday) and personal income, personal spending and PCE price index (Friday).

Soft Landing on the Horizon? (E193)

After reviewing stocks (0:48), bond (2:43) and commodities (4:26), plus bitcoin (5:17) topping $100,000, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau unpack the past two weeks’ macro news (6:10). ISM manufacturing, payroll and jobs data suggestive, Jeff says, suggest that “maybe the Fed is going to be able to do the soft landing.” Turning to federal funds rate probabilities (12:27), future contracts are pricing in 3½ cuts through the end of 2025, inferring Sam notes more restrained policy than suggested to date in Fed guidance. Looking ahead to the Dec. 9-13 market week, topping their watch list will be the November CPI report, due Wednesday – the last CPI print before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 18.

A “Benign” Green Scene for Markets Heading Into Thanksgiving Week (E192)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a positive run in the markets for the week of Nov. 18-22. The S&P Index (00:33) inched up, supporting likely healthy returns for the month and year; fixed income (2:09) was also positive, with all components of the Agg rising; and the broad commodities market (3:54) was up, with gold marking a strong week. A light week in Macro Land (5:04) included a mixed picture for initial and continuing jobless claims, a “warning” signal framing for the Conference Board’s LEI and some post-election U.S. PMI numbers. It was also a light week for Fedspeak (11:26), with the odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December still basically a coin flip. Next week’s (12:03) data will include home prices, personal income and spending, and the October PCE print. This episode was recorded Nov. 22, 2024, before market close.
Minutes is taking next week off but will return with weekly coverage Dec. 6, including a recap of November monthly market performance. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!