DoubleLine Minutes

New Highs for Stocks, Uncertainty at the Fed (E232)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel dissect the Sept. 15-19 week, with stocks (0:22) rallying to new highs on tech, comm services and consumer discretionary; yield-curve steepening (2:15); and commodities weakening amid strength in precious metals (3:40). The week’s macro news (7:04) was dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarter-point fed funds rate cut and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Sept. 17 indicating a preoccupation with risks to the labor market, albeit in a context of ongoing concern about the future path of inflation. While forecasts in some corners called for as many as three FOMC member dissents, only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, who has called for three 0.5% federal funds rate cuts over the last three FOMC meetings of 2025, voted in disagreement with Wednesday’s quarter-point cut. However, Eric and Ryan take note of the extraordinary dispersion among FOMC members over the future course of monetary policy.
Looking ahead to the week of Sept. 22-26 (21:43), Eric and Ryan will be particularly focused on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August. Based on CPI, PPI and import and export prices, economists’ consensus forecasts a relatively benign month-over-month increase of 20 basis points (0.20%), which would leave the year-over-year Core PCE increase unchanged at 2.9%.

Broadly Green Week Heading Into Likely Fed Cut (E231)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a pretty positive run for markets for the week of Sept. 8-12, with performance impacted by investors believing a Fed cut is all but assured next week. The tech sector pushed the S&P 500 to more record highs (1:05), fixed income was supported by a rally on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve (3:27), and commodities were up on the back of industrial and precious metals (6:06).
Over in Macro Land, the BLS released steep prelim benchmark revisions to establishment survey jobs data, but Eric and Mark caution the final numbers could vary (7:57); Mark breaks down the deceleration in the PPI print (11:02); Eric and Mark look at the most recent CPI print and whether its supportive of a Fed cut (13:43); they review job numbers that are supportive of a Fed cut (16:15); and they talk about the latest dour outlook in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (17:36).
Next week, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with the only real speculation is on whether it will be a 25-bp (most likely) or 50-bp cut and if FOMC nominee Stephen Miran will be approved in time to participate in this meeting.

Mixed Stocks, Bull Steepener in Bond Yields (E230)

Stocks (0:33) were mixed the week ended Sept. 5 as yields (1:51) fell across the fixed income universe and commodities (4:16) were flat with gold among the winners and crude oil and industrial metals lower. In the week’s macro news (5:12), DoubleLine Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel notes, was dominated by weakening in the labor market in August. That weakness, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry says, translated into the federal funds futures market pricing in 2.9 quarter-point cuts over the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2025 and six cuts, totaling 150 basis points, over the next 15 months.
Looking ahead to the Sept.8-12 week (16:09), Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions (Tuesday), August producer price index (Wednesday), consumer price index and jobless claims (Thursday) and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday).

A Quiet Week as Markets Await August Labor Data (E229)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a mostly quiet week ended Aug. 29 and the month of August. On the week, equities (0:40) proved a mixed bag, with energy leading upside sectors, and utilities and tech heading lower. Tech pressured by news Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek will rely on Chinese chip manufacturers. Common stocks also witnessed outperformance in small-cap and equal-weighted indexes. Fixed income (2:43) hosted further steepening of the Treasury yield curve. Commodities gained (4:18), led by precious metals, with the dollar ending the week flat.
 
Amid the week’s mostly benign macro news (5:15) such as a bounce-back in capital goods orders decent personal income and spending, Mark Kimbrough notes, a positive second-quarter GDP report notwithstanding, a weak 1Q-2Q growth rate for private domestic final purchases. Turning to Fed watch (11:46), Jeff Mayberry reports the futures markets on Aug. 29 are pricing in an 88% probability of a federal funds rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets Sept. 17 and 2.7 quarter-point cuts total in 2025. Looking ahead to macro news (12:29) in the abbreviated week of Sept. 2-5, Jeff and Mark will be especially focused on the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports due on Friday.

Slow Roll Until Jackson Hole (E228)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the market week of Aug. 18-22, which started out as a little bit of a down run for equities before being boosted by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday. Chair Powell’s comments seemed to raise prospects for a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. In addition to the stock bounce, fixed income (3:20) and commodities (4:50) had positive weeks. Eric and Ryan conclude the market recap with a review of Chair Powell’s speech and the market reaction to what had been expected to be a more hawkish stance (5:40).
Over in Macro Land (10:35), topics covered include housing data; labor numbers; and strong S&P Global PMI prints, which notably contrast with ISM’s weaker prints. Next week’s releases will include durable goods data and the latest PCE number.

Aug. 11-15: Stocks Disperse, Rates Reverse (E227)

 DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough dissect a market week ended Aug. 15 marked by positive stocks, with an interesting dispersion within the asset class (0:46); bonds troubled by inflation readings (3:14); and flat commodities (4:45). The week’s macro calendar (7:38) was packed with inflation news. After a noncommittal July CPI, a hawkish July PPI prompted a selloff in rates and moderated Fed rate-cut probabilities for the remainder of 2025, with the futures market pricing in two cuts by year-end. On Friday, a 4% import-prices jump for July exceeded expectations, albeit the year-over-year change was -0.2%. Looking ahead to the week of Aug. 18-22, Eric and Mark will have on their radar (19:59), among other news, the FOMC July 30 meeting minutes (Wednesday) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech (Friday) at the Kansas City Fed’s annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

A Mixed Bag for Markets and the Fed Signals a Dovish Tilt (E226)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel break down market moves of the week ended Aug. 8, 2025, following a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical headlines and shifting interest-rate expectations. They discuss a rebound in equities (00:56), a modest pullback in fixed income after last weeks’ rally (2:48), a mixed picture for commodities (4:04) and currency dynamics (7:08). Over in Macro Land (9:35), Eric and Ryan review a quiet data week, highlighting durable goods revisions, ISM services softness and jobless claim trends. They also explore the implications of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the nomination of a dovish Fed governor. Next week’s prints will include possibly impactful CPI and PPI reports (18:26).

A Week of Vol on Hawkish Powell and Weak Labor (E225)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the stock, bond and commodity markets for the month of July (0:37) and the “week of volatility” ended Aug. 1 (3:39). The latter, they note, was driven by a week packed with macro news (7:41). That environment included a more hawkish-than-expected Fed chairman amid rare public dissents on the FOMC on Wednesday and Friday’s overwhelmingly negative payroll and unemployment reports. Mark Kimbrough also singled out the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly funding announcement (9:16). With elevated deficits locked in under Trump’s budget legislation, Mark notes there was “a sigh of relief” in the T-bill market after the government announced “nominal-coupon and floating-rate auction sizes are expected to remain stable for the next several quarters.” Jeff Mayberry, watching fed funds rate expectations (21:33), says the futures market, on Powell’s guidance, Wednesday had priced in 1.3 quarter-point cuts by the end of 2025. Those market odds surged to 2.3 cuts on Friday’s labor reports.

Pain on Bears Amid Meme Stock Mania (E224)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the week ended June 25, featuring a run of daily highs for the S&P 500 Index buoyed by resurgent retail speculation, a pretty good week for bonds (3:58) and more struggles for commodities (6:00). Over in Macro Land (7:15), it was a light week of prints, including a dip in the LEI, some soft home sales data and a mixed picture for PMI manufacturing and services. Next week (14:20) will bring the FOMC meeting and the possibility for rate-cut dissent drama and potential Fed chair auditions as well as labor, inflation and GDP numbers.

Benign Markets Amid Tame Inflation, Resilient Consumers (E223)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the week ended July 18, including tech-driven new highs in equities (0:46), a bond market shaped by a steepening yield curve (2:28) and gains in the broad commodity market (4:42). The week’s macro news (6:52) was led by tame reports on the consumer and producer price front. Core CPI for June posted its fifth consecutive monthly surprise to the downside versus consensus expectations. Notwithstanding a short-lived media trial balloon from the Trump administration about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the markets (16:09) are pricing in no action on the fed funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30, and only two cuts in the second half of 2025.